Colorado’s Progressive Landscape Through the Selectorate Theory
Welcome back Decolonize Colorado, a Substack dedicated to exposing the Progressive takeover of the Centennial State and its devastating toll on freedom, prosperity, and affordability. Once a land of rugged individualism and wide-open opportunity, Colorado has been reshaped by an ideology - Progressive Colonialism - that cloaks itself in compassion and equality but delivers stagnation, control, and decline. Here, we’ll peel back the layers of this transformation, drawing on sharp economic insights and real-world critiques to reveal what’s at stake—and how we can fight back. If you didn’t already read the introductory post, please see below.
Be sure too to check out some of the recommended Substacks including two Colorado-related ones by
of Colorado Accountability Project and of The Fleeting West.This post will discuss in greater detail the political strategy and outcomes of the Progressive Colonialism movement in recent decades.
If there’s one caveat to add is that while Decolonize Colorado will focus largely on one political movement in the state - Progressive Colonialism - but the site itself does not intend to be partisan as both political parties in the view of the author fall significantly short of the pro-freedom, pro Austrian economics, pro human flourishing platform of the page.
The reality is the high level concept presented below, Selectorate Theory, is an effective way for any political ideology or person to gain stronghold in an area.
Historical Background: From The Blueprint to a Progressive Stronghold
In the early 2000s, Colorado was a battleground state with Republicans largely in control of state government. In 2004, for example, the GOP held the governorship, both U.S. Senate seats, and a majority of U.S. House seats. Democrats responded with a concerted strategy detailed in The Blueprint: How the Democrats Won Colorado, which chronicled how a handful of wealthy progressives built a new political infrastructure. A group of four liberal philanthropists – tech entrepreneur Tim Gill, heiress Pat Stryker, entrepreneur (and current CO Governor) Jared Polis, and venture capitalist Rutt Bridges – invested heavily in state politics. This so-called “Gang of Four” helped finance think tanks, media outlets, and advocacy groups to amplify progressive messages and support Democratic candidates.
Their efforts paid off: by the 2006 and 2008 elections, Democrats had flipped Colorado’s state legislature and major statewide offices, transforming a once solidly Republican state into a Democratic-leaning one. This approach became known nationally as the “Colorado Model,” referring to the permanent network of donors and organizations that kept Republicans on the defensive.
Over time, the progressive movement’s base and power structure in Colorado have expanded and matured. Following the initial Blueprint victories, the movement experienced occasional setbacks, such as the Republican resurgence in 2014, which resulted in the GOP briefly regaining control of the state senate. Nevertheless, the progressive coalition’s resilience was evident in the 2018 “blue wave,” when Democrats successfully reclaimed the state senate and all statewide executive offices, thereby achieving full control of state government for the first time in several decades.
This enduring success is best understood through the lens of Selectorate Theory, a concept presented in by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith’ book The Dictator’s Handbook by examining three key groups – the Nominal Selectorate, the Real Selectorate, and the Winning Coalition – and how each has shaped Colorado’s progressive landscape and to a larger extent the decline of the state.
The Nominal Selectorate: The Broad Progressive Electorate
The Nominal Selectorate encompasses all who have the theoretical right to influence outcomes – in this case, all Colorado voters and especially those who lean Democratic or Progressive. This group includes registered Democrats as well as left-leaning independents and minor-party progressives. Colorado’s rules even allow unaffiliated voters, who now make up the largest share of the electorate, to participate in primaries for either Republican or Democratic candidates (but not independent or third party candidates), broadening the nominal base. As of 2024, Colorado had over 1 million registered Democrats and nearly 1.9 million unaffiliated voters, who together vastly outnumber registered Republicans.
Geographically, the nominal selectorate is concentrated in urban and suburban areas such as Denver, Boulder, increasingly diverse suburbs such as Aurora and Jefferson County and in the “resort” towns in the mountains. Over the period since The Blueprint, this electorate has grown not just in size but in its progressive orientation, driven by changing demographics and in-migration of young, educated residents.
Importantly, the progressive Nominal Selectorate has become more engaged on key issues over time. Early 2000s progressive voters were mobilized by dissatisfaction with the Iraq War and conservative state fiscal policies (e.g. fights over school funding and the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights). By the 2010s and 2020s, the base had expanded to include more young voters and transplants drawn to Colorado’s economy and lifestyle. Many in this broad group have been energized by issues such as renewable energy, healthcare expansion, “gun safety”, and social justice. For example, left-leaning voters’ support was crucial in passing state ballot measures (such as minimum wage increases and paid family leave) and in making Colorado a reliably “blue state” in recent national elections.
While not all members of the Nominal Selectorate vote or engage regularly, they form the pool from which the active progressive movement draws its strength. Without this large theoretical base of support, the successes of Colorado Democrats would not be possible.
The Real Selectorate: Active Participants and Influencers
The Real Selectorate consists of those who actually participate in the process and exert meaningful influence – the committed voters, activists, donors, and organizations that drive Colorado’s progressive politics. This group is a subset of the Nominal Electorate: it includes the party faithful and many left-leaning independents who consistently vote in primaries and general elections, attend caucuses, donate money, and volunteer for campaigns. Over time, Colorado’s real selectorate has become highly organized and networked, thanks to the infrastructure built during and after The Blueprint period.
“Grassroots” activists and volunteers form the backbone of the Real Selectorate. Since 2004, Progressive advocacy nonprofits have mobilized supporters on issues and elections year-round. For instance, groups established with Blueprint funding – such as ProgressNow Colorado (a state-based activist network akin to MoveOn.org), Colorado Ethics Watch (a legal watchdog), and the Colorado Independent (online news) – rallied liberal citizens to pay attention and take action
Unaffiliated progressive nonprofits like New Era Colorado (focused on youth voter registration) and One Colorado (advocating LGBTQ+ rights) also engaged and expanded the base of active participants. Following the 2016 election, new grassroots networks like Indivisible galvanized previously apolitical citizens to protest and organize against the Trump-era GOP. These Indivisible groups held rallies, knocked on doors, and phone-banked in the 2018 midterms, channeling post-2016 energy into local victories. The result was a surge in progressive turnout and activism that helped flip a longtime Republican congressional district and numerous state legislative seats in 2018. This evolution shows the Real Selectorate growing beyond traditional party structures to include ad-hoc citizen movements.
Donors and financial supporters – from small-dollar contributors to significant benefactors – are another critical segment of the real selectorate. Colorado’s Democrats have benefited from an army of grassroots donors contributing to candidates and causes, as well as a cadre of wealthy individuals who consistently fund progressive campaigns. In fact, analyses in the late 2000s showed that the top individual political donors in the state were Democrats: Jared Polis, Tim Gill, and Pat Stryker ranked as the highest contributors over a five-year period. Polis (then a private philanthropist, Senator, now the Governor) spent millions on progressive candidates including his own campaigns, while Gill and Stryker likewise poured money into similar causes
Alongside them, organizations and PACs mobilizing many small donors – especially labor unions – became major players. Labor union political committees (for teachers, state employees, service workers, etc.) bundle donations from thousands of members, giving unions a strong voice in primaries and elections. By 2012, the top 15 political organizations spending in Colorado were dominated by unions, which together spent roughly $62 million (far exceeding the top 15 individuals’ $24 million). The Colorado Education Association (and its national affiliate the NEA), the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), the United Food and Commercial Workers, and AFSCME all heavily funded Democratic campaigns and progressive ballot measures. These unions not only contribute money but also mobilize members for canvassing and turnout, firmly placing them in the real selectorate that actively shapes outcomes.
Through the period in question, the real selectorate in Colorado’s progressive movement has thus broadened and professionalized. Early on, it was spearheaded by a tight circle of donors and newly-formed progressive NGOs. Over time, it expanded to include robust union involvement and grassroots enthusiasm from everyday citizens. This active core of donors, organizers, and volunteers translates the nominal electorate’s potential into tangible political power, selecting Democratic nominees and pushing progressive policies to the forefront of the agenda.
Winning Coalition: Essential Power Brokers and Institutions
The Winning Coalition in Colorado’s progressive politics is the subset of supporters whose loyalty is indispensable for attaining and holding power. In Selectorate Theory terms, these are the “essentials” – the key individuals and organizations without whom electoral victories and governance would not be possible. Since the Blueprint era, Colorado’s winning coalition has been deliberately cultivated and maintained by Democratic leaders. It has evolved from a small circle of strategists and benefactors into a synergistic alliance of major donors, influential organizations (including unions and advocacy groups), and prominent political figures.
Major progressive donors and strategists have been at the heart of the winning coalition from the start. The “Gang of Four” – Jared Polis, Tim Gill, Pat Stryker, and Rutt Bridges – not only bankrolled campaigns but also coordinated strategy through entities like the Colorado Democracy Alliance. Their unified investment created a permanent network often credited with flipping Colorado from red to blue and keeping it that way. By funding candidate committees and a web of progressive nonprofits, this donor coalition ensured that Democratic candidates had the resources and infrastructure needed to win elections. Even as Polis himself transitioned from donor to elected official (now serving as governor), other wealthy Progressives and new philanthropic alliances have joined or sustained this core group. The influence of these donors remains essential – as late as 2019, observers noted that a small group of wealthy Colorado liberals pouring millions into local elections since 2004 was instrumental in cementing the state’s Democratic dominance. Simply put, retaining the support of these financiers (for campaign funding and outside electioneering) is vital for any Democratic candidate’s path to victory in Colorado.
Influential organizations, unions, and interest groups also form a critical part of the winning coalition. Foremost among these are Colorado’s labor unions and their political arms. Union endorsements and get-out-the-vote efforts are effectively a seal of approval that candidates need to secure the Democratic base. For example, the endorsement of the Colorado Education Association (CEA) – representing thousands of teachers – is often essential for Democratic success in state races, as CEA not only contributes funds but mobilizes educators across the state. Likewise, the Colorado AFL-CIO (the umbrella federation of unions) coordinates support from various labor sectors, and groups like SEIU and UFCW bring organizing muscle to campaigns.
The funding clout of unions in Colorado’s elections has made them indispensable allies: teachers’ unions and public-sector unions have spent millions to defeat Republican candidates (such as the NEA’s $1.4 million spent to help defeat GOP Senate nominee Ken Buck in 2010). As a result, Democratic officeholders prioritize maintaining union support through pro-labor policies (e.g. collective bargaining rights for state employees) and education funding increases, reflecting unions’ role in the ruling coalition.
In addition to unions, key advocacy and policy organizations are part of the essential coalition sustaining progressive power. During the initial Blueprint implementation, donors established think tanks and media outlets – such as the Bighorn Company (public policy ideas), Bell Policy Center (a Progressive Colonialist think tank), and Colorado Media Matters – that bolstered Democratic messaging. These institutions provided the policy research and rapid-response communications that helped progressive candidates succeed and govern effectively. As the movement matured, newer advocacy groups joined the inner circle. Conservation Colorado and 350Colorado (the state’s leading environmental groups), Planned Parenthood of the Rocky Mountains and pro-choice allies, and civil rights groups like Colorado Immigrant Rights Coalition (CIRC) became influential in candidate endorsements and voter mobilization around specific issues. Their support can swing primary elections or ballot initiative campaigns. Over time, Democratic leaders in Colorado learned to keep this coalition of interest groups satisfied – by advancing policies on clean energy, abolition rights, immigration reform, etc. – to ensure these groups continue to turn out supporters and campaign resources when it matters most.
The composition of the winning coalition has certainly evolved since the mid-2000s, but its impact is undeniable. Early on, the coalition’s core was relatively small and elite: a handful of millionaires and strategists plotting a Democratic resurgence. As Colorado turned blue, the coalition expanded to incorporate organized labor, long-standing progressive nonprofits, and influential community leaders, creating a broader but still coordinated power base. This essential coalition is credited with constructing a “vast infrastructure of liberal organizations” that amplifies progressive power in both politics and media. It not only helped win elections but also has largely kept Republicans from recovering in Colorado by maintaining a united front. For instance, even during tougher election years, the coalition’s support allowed Democrats to hold key offices (such as narrowly re-electing a Democratic governor and U.S. Senator in 2014 despite a national GOP wave).
In recent years, with Democrats firmly in control, the winning coalition continues to drive the progressive policy agenda – from ambitious renewable energy targets to gun laws – knowing it has the backing of those essential supporters. In sum, the winning coalition’s ability to adapt and incorporate new allies while retaining core support has been fundamental to the sustained success of Colorado’s progressive movement.
Evolution and Impact on Colorado’s Progressive Movement
From The Blueprint era to today, Colorado’s progressive selectorate at all levels has grown more “inclusive”, better organized, and more influential. The nominal selectorate – once a mix of traditional Democratic voters and a smaller pool of left-leaning independents – has swelled with transplants and young voters, many of whom reliably back progressive candidates. The real selectorate has transformed from a relatively ad-hoc collection of donors and activists into a permanent mobilization machine: a combination of grassroots energy (as seen in movements like Indivisible) and well-oiled organizations capable of turning out votes and money. Meanwhile, the winning coalition that guides the direction of Colorado’s progressive politics has balanced continuity and change. It continues to feature the foundational donors and groups that sparked the state’s Democratic shift, while also integrating unions and emerging issue-based organizations as indispensable partners.
This evolving coalition has had a profound impact on Colorado’s political trajectory. It pioneered a model for flipping a state by building capacity outside the formal party structure – a model since emulated in other states. Over roughly 15 years, progressive forces turned Colorado into a laboratory for Democratic policy achievements in the West, from early adoption of marijuana legalization to renewable energy standards and expansions of healthcare access. Just as importantly, they have made Colorado into a reliably “blue” state in national politics, contributing to Democratic presidential victories and providing a bench of rising progressive leaders. In summary, analyzing Colorado’s progressive landscape through the Selectorate Theory highlights how a broad base of voters, a motivated cadre of participants, and a shrewd core coalition together transformed the state’s politics. What began as an ambitious blueprint has matured into a lasting political realignment – one maintained by constantly tending to the very selectorates that brought it to power.